Traffic and revenue forecast at risk for a BOT road project

Abstract

This paper presents the risk analysis of revenue and traffic forecast of a Build Operate Transfer (BOT) road project using cumulative distribution method. In road project, traffic is the main source to earn money/revenue. Traffic is projected using various methods. Actual traffic may not follow the projected traffic and actual traffic may be reduced/increased depending on the development of the road side and near areas. Rapid development i.e., industrial, commercial, business activity creates rapid traffic growth rate which is not expected and reverse happening where road side development is negligible. Traditional traffic forecast may not consider the risk of projected traffic. This paper presents the risk analysis of the projected traffic and alternatively revenue with a real case study and determine lower and upper limit of revenue and expected revenue has been determined using Monte Carlo Simulation Method.