Traffic Analysis and Forecast for Meghalaya Road Network

Abstract

AbstractThe growth of traffic is significant to the planning and development of the transportation system, as it aids in the identification of future investments. Traffic forecasting is defined as an evaluation of traffic capacity and the number of vehicles that will use a specific type of transportation facility in the future. This method uses appropriate assumptions to estimate overall average traffic, giving adequate weight to traffic growth in figures, considering the volume of design services as recommended by IRC: 64 for various road types, for the following three decades, this model is used to forecast future traffic volumes in PCU/day. After analyzing several research publications, a methodology based on the elasticity method is adopted to determine the overall traffic growth rate. To develop the future traffic prediction model, the vehicle registration figures are collected from the RTO-Shillong, correlated with the help of GDP, per-capita income, and population of the Meghalaya to generate the growth rates as per IRC recommendations. The model of traffic forecasting might be quite subjective and approximate due to the lack of adequate data and the volatility of the expanding economy. Thus, proposing lanes required after ten, twenty, and thirty years for smooth serviceability of different roads classified based on location and function as per IRC recommendations will be obliging.KeywordsTraffic forecastElasticity forecast modelTraffic growth rates