Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology capable of assessing the influence of the recent Gulf crisis and the consequent influx of returnees to Jordan on the total monthly traffic accidents. More specifically, the paper specifies and estimates a diffusion model capable of explicitly addressing the variations in the total monthly traffic accidents subject to a randomly occurring event (the Gulf crisis). The model is applied to monthly-recorded traffic accidents in Jordan. Estimation results clearly demonstrated the appropriateness of the estimated diffusion model. Contrary to the general belief adopted by local traffic engineers, maximum likelihood estimation results presented in this paper seem to indicate that the Gulf crisis and consequent influx of returnees did not have a significant impact on total traffic accidents.
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