Abstract

This research is the first attempt to customize a trading system that is based on second order stochastic dominance (SSD) to five known cryptocurrencies’ daily data: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Binance Coin, and Cardano. Results show that our system can predict price trends of cryptocurrencies, trade them profitably, and in most cases outperform the buy and hold (B&H) simple strategy. Our system’s best performance was achieved trading XRP, Binance Coin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. Although our system has also generated a positive net profit (NP) for Cardano, it failed to outperform the B&H strategy. For all currencies, the system better predicted long trends than short trends.

Highlights

  • We found that the system can predict price trends of cryptocurrencies, trade them profitably, and in most cases outperform the buy and hold (B&H) simple strategy

  • Researchers have documented that the cryptocurrency market is largely affected by herding behavior (Vidal Tomas et al [1]; Gama Silva et al [2]); techniques such as machine learning and technical analysis improve price forecasting when they integrate additional variables related to sentiment

  • We altered the number of days systematically starting with one day until the number of recorded trades dropped to zero

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Summary

Introduction

Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Different processes were used to identify and forecasts cryptocurrencies’ price behaviors, including linear and nonlinear and other technical tools. This research makes the first attempt to predict price trends of major cryptocurrencies using second order stochastic dominance (SSD) conditions. Our aim is to detect stochastic dominance superiority changes and exploit them for profitable trading. We tested our system for five major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP (Ripple), Binance Coin, and Cardano. Cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin is traded on special exchanges including Etoro and CoinBase. We found that the system can predict price trends of cryptocurrencies, trade them profitably, and in most cases outperform the buy and hold (B&H) simple strategy

Literature Review
Data and Methodologies
Results
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Binance
52 NP and53 strategy by
Conclusions and Future Research

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