Abstract

Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over the long term.

Highlights

  • Nitrate (NO3-) leaching from agricultural land is a pervasive problem in areas with intensive agricultural production [1,2,3,4]

  • The scenarios simulated in this study illustrate the implications that future climate changes could have on N dynamics in a Mediterranean Nitrate-vulnerable zone (NVZ)

  • While these results are influenced by the particular crops and soil characteristics of the site chosen, they provide insight into the potential to increase N use efficiency (NUE) and decrease nitrate leaching in cereal-based cropping systems in a Mediterranean NVZ

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Summary

Introduction

Nitrate (NO3-) leaching from agricultural land is a pervasive problem in areas with intensive agricultural production [1,2,3,4]. Application of N fertilizer in agricultural fields, while necessary to achieve adequate levels of crop production and quality, is often associated with significant environmental impacts because it is difficult to match crop N demand with N supply [5]. In areas where farmers rely on manure or slurry as a source of N, application of excessive amounts of these organic wastes can result in significant loss of nutrients and lead to environmental degradation [6]. Groundwater contamination due to NO3- leaching has received particular consideration in European Union legislation because pollution of this valuable resource has significantly increased in areas where intensive agriculture is practiced [4]. N losses are mainly due to NO3- leaching to the groundwater, ammonia volatilization from the leaves of N-rich plants, and emission of nitrogen (N2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere [9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18]

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