Abstract
This study tests the trade-off and pecking order hypotheses of corporate financing decisions and estimates the speed of adjustment toward target leverage using a cross-section of 42 manufacturing, 24 mining and 21 retail firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) for the period 2000-2010. It uses the generalised least squares (GLS) random effects, maximum likelihood (ML) random effects, fixed effects, time series regression, Arellano and Bond (1991), Blundell and Bond (1998) and random effects Tobit estimators to fit the two versions of the partial adjustment models. The study finds that leverage is positively correlated to profitability and this supports the trade-off theory. The trade-off theory is further supported by the negative correlation on non-debt tax shields. Consistent with the pecking order theory, capital expenditure and growth rate are positively correlated to leverage while asset tangibility is inversely related to leverage. The negative correlation on financial distress and the positive correlation on dividends paid support both the pecking order and trade-off theories. These results are consistent with the view that the pecking order and trade-off theories are non-mutual exclusive in explaining the financing decisions of firms. The results also show that South African manufacturing, mining and retail firms do have target leverage ratios and the true speed of adjustment towards target leverage is 57.64% for book-to-debt ratio and 42.44% for market-to-debt ratio.
Highlights
The Leading Capital Structure TheoriesT he relevance of capital structure decisions on firm valuation has been debated since the pioneering work of Modigliani and Miller (1958) where they proposed the capital structure irrelevance theory
The empirical work done by Frank and Goyal (2003); Myers (1984); Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999) and Tong and Green (2005) confirms the pecking order hypothesis as a good descriptor of corporate financing behaviour, but empirical tests done by Chang and Dasgupta (2009); Frank and Goyal (2009) and Leary
The study applies the generalised least squares (GLS) random effects, maximum likelihood (ML) random effects, fixed effects, time series regression, Arellano and Bond (1991), Blundell and Bond(1998) and the random effects Tobit estimators on a sample of 42 manufacturing, 24 mining and 21 retail firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) for the period 2000-2010
Summary
The Leading Capital Structure TheoriesT he relevance of capital structure decisions on firm valuation has been debated since the pioneering work of Modigliani and Miller (1958) where they proposed the capital structure irrelevance theory. Subsequent empirical research has proposed a number of theories that attempt to explain the financing behaviour of corporations These include the trade-off theory, the pecking order theory, the agency cost theory, and the information asymmetry theories (the signalling and market timing theories). According to Myers (1984), the two leading conditional theories of capital structure are the trade-off and pecking order theories and this is reflected in the volume of research work done across the globe to compare the two theories. The results of these empirical tests have been mixed, with some results supporting the trade-off while rejecting the pecking order theory and vice versa. The empirical work done by Frank and Goyal (2003); Myers (1984); Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999) and Tong and Green (2005) confirms the pecking order hypothesis as a good descriptor of corporate financing behaviour, but empirical tests done by Chang and Dasgupta (2009); Frank and Goyal (2009) and Leary
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