Trade Prediction Outcomes During Pandemic and Its Impact in Lean Implementation

Abstract

AbstractMajority of the manufacturing and service sectors are enjoying improvement in operational efficiency through Implementation of lean tools in its operations. Operation of these sectors is depending on its supply chain efficiency, which was identified as one of the enablers for lean implementation using various tools in both sectors. Supply chain of most of the industry is becoming complex due to the uncertainty in few of their inputs, like import/export trade variation as a result of pandemic. At present, the pandemic is having an impact in most countries, the containment in trade regions is not removed completely and the trading of goods is affected due to the prolonging lockdown periods. This research is aimed to comprehend variation of the foreign trade in India during pandemic crisis and its impact in lean implementation practices in organization. Trade data collection was done through reliable government sources and the prediction model analysis was done to predict the variation in trade. The research is conducted to measure the variation in international trade using prediction model for few major commodities. This predicted trade variation, and its impact in manufacturing sector is identified as the variation in input resources and restriction of worker movement due to containment. These identified trade prediction outcomes and its impact in few lean implementation practices of manufacturing organizations was discussed. The effectiveness of the few lean implementation practices and disruption in the related process flow, could increase the cost, different manufacturing wastes and cycle time of the manufacturing process. The findings of this research are to give insights and thoughts to the traders that could result in effective and successful trading during crisis times. The prediction of commodities as input resources have resulted into low, medium and high impact on various lean implementation tools.KeywordsLean implementationPandemicTradePrediction modelImportExport