Trade Policies and Prospects in Western Europe

Abstract

NO CRITERIA exist to suggest an optimum level of international trade. Yet, looked at in the light of resource availabilities, apparent production cost, and the maze of restrictions applied, it is evident that an appropriate trade balance has not been achieved for agricultural products in the North Atlantic area. The reason for this is fairly obvious. With the exception of of a few small countries where agricultural exports represent a substantial share of gross national product, emphasis is placed on the accommodation of agricultural policy to internal requirements, with little regard to its impact on international trade. Methods used to fulfill internal objectives, plus evolutionary change due to economic growth, have led to increased output in all countries, and international economic conflict seems more and more to be focused on the agricultural sector. Whether these conditions will change and create room for further trade expansion is a question with numerous interrelated technical, economic, and political dimensions. Obviously, these dimensions cannot readily be synthesized into anything approaching a complete or scientifically valid analysis. Hence, the remainder of this paper aims at a more limited objective and will try to provide some insight into future trade prospects by (1) reviewing recent trends in trade and in supply-demand balances in West European markets, (2) considering briefly some of the underlying economic conditions that have influenced, and likely will continue to influence, the balance of requirements and output within Europe, and (3) looking at recent and, where possible, prospective developments in agricultural policies that have direct implication for trade. Emphasis will be placed on conditions in Western Europe and their implications for imports of temperate-zone food products from external suppliers.