Trade-Offs between Agricultural Production, GHG Emissions and Income in a Changing Climate, Technology, and Food Demand Scenario

Pramod K Aggarwal,Paresh B Shirsath

doi:10.3390/su13063190

Abstract

Climate-smart agriculture targets integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies for delivering food security and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. This study outlines a methodology to identify the trade-offs between food production, emissions, and income under technology and food demand-shift scenario and climate change. The methodology uses Climate Smart Agricultural Prioritization (CSAP) toolkit a multi-objective land-use allocation model, and detailed databases, characterizing the agricultural production processes at the land-unit scale. A case study has also been demonstrated for Bihar, a state in India. The quantification of trade-offs demonstrates that under different technology growth pathways alone the food self-sufficiency for Bihar cannot be achieved whilst the reduction in emission intensity targets are achievable up to 2040. However, both food self-sufficiency and reduction in emission intensity can be achieved if we relax constraints on dietary demand and focus on kilo-calories maximization targets. The district-level analysis shows that food self-sufficiency and reduction in emission intensity targets can be achieved at a local scale through efficient crop-technology portfolios.

Highlights

820 million people are hungry, most of them happen to be in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and at the same time, agriculture and land-use changes are a major source of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions [1]
The elements of emission and adaptation are resolved by the Climate Smart Agricultural Prioritization (CSAP) through multi-objective land-use allocation modelling and dietary change interventions using the demand-shift scenario
We present trade-offs for food security, income, and emission

Summary

Introduction

To achieve zero hunger by 2030, the agriculture production process needs a transformation—from input intensification to sustainable intensification; from being vulnerable to adaptive and resilient with lower emissions of GHGs. increasing food production in the coming decades must be done sustainably without compromising environmental integrity. Increasing food production in the coming decades must be done sustainably without compromising environmental integrity To implement this transformation, a variety of innovations in the production technologies and policy decisions have been suggested by different organizations, institutes, researchers, policymakers etc. Within CSA, choosing the appropriate decisions of investment, production technology or policy is often done through heuristics or expert judgments. Such decisions may lack quantification of foreseen impacts and tradeoffs.

Methods

Results

Conclusion