Trade-off and driving factors of water-energy-food nexus in Mu Us sandy land, China

Abstract

Water, energy, and food are essential resources for human survival. The trade-off among these resources can limit regional economic development and pose challenges to livelihood security. In this study, we constructed a root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) index to measure the water-energy-food nexus (WEFN) trade-off. Multi-source data and analysis methods, including ordinary least square (OLS), geographically weighted regression (GWR), and geographic detectors (GD) are employed to explore the trade-offs of water, energy, and food resources and their dominant influencing factors in the Mu Us Sandy Land. The results indicate that the trade-off between regional water-food sub-nexus exhibited the highest magnitude, and trade-offs among all sub-nexus types demonstrated significant fluctuations in spatial distribution. Both OLS and GWR results identified temperature, precipitation, normalized differential vegetation index, slope, digital elevation model, and nighttime light as significant factors influencing the spatial differentiation of WEFN trade-offs. Moreover, geographic detector analysis indicated that precipitation is the dominant factor, and its interaction with other influencing factors further impacts the regional WEFN trade-off. The discussion section examines the RMSD method's effectiveness, the dominant factors shaping WEFN trade-offs, as well as scale effect in WEFN trade-offs in the Mu Us area and underscores that mitigation of water shortages can yield a leverage effect, leading to a marked reduction in the trade-offs. This research contributes new ideas and tools to WEFN research from a geographic perspective, aiming to provide guidance for collaborative resource management and regional sustainable development.