Abstract
Similar to tariffs, non-tariff measures (NTMs) may induce trade fraud when they are restrictive. This paper examines whether discrepancies observed in the official trade statistics of importing and exporting countries are partly due to trade fraud from evading border NTMs. To capture the restrictiveness of NTMs, this paper estimates the ad valorem equivalent (AVE) with importer-exporter-product variations. This paper presents a theoretical model and empirical evidence showing that discrepancies increase with AVEs, consistent with the trade fraud due to traders intentionally misdeclaring countries of origin or misclassify products in order to evade border NTMs. The results are driven by homogeneous products and the trade between developed and developing countries.
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