Trade, conflict, and opportunity: taking advantage of others’ protectionism and isolationism – the case of MERCOSUL

Abstract

ABSTRACT The election of President Trump, Brexit, and the amplifying of isolationist voices have signaled the possible emergence of a new era – one of retreat in the Liberal International Order. While this is one way of defining the present moment, it does not capture the full picture, as uncertainty has opened and/or widened new partnerships. In this scenario, MERCOSUL (Southern Common Market) has both sought and been sought by a growing number of countries and international organizations, recently (re)launching free trade negotiations with many partners, including Canada. This paper explores the empirical aspects of MERCOSUL’s apparently sudden growth in attractiveness, reflecting external and internal factors, with particular attention to Brazil recent negotiations. The case allows an opportunity to reflect if the world is witnessing indeed an “unravelling” of the multilateralist world order or rather a re-adjustment, whereby increasing diversification is pursued through untraditional and overlooked partnerships. The idea is not to minimize the significant worldwide impacts of the US’ inward-looking trade policies and discourse or deny the growth in appeal to isolationism, but to question whether such positions are still exceptions, or if reports on the open trade system’s death have only been greatly exaggerated.