Trade — Can Canada Compete Global Supply – Demand Outlook for Industrial Roundwood

Abstract

The global forest will increasingly come under demographic pressures for both industrial and non-industrial goods and services.World supplies of industrial wood to the year 2000 on a sustainable basis are estimated to be adequate to meet future demand. However, appears to be less certain towards the year 2030.Emerging global trends for the supply of and demand for industrial roundwood suggest a shift in the production, consumption and trade. This shift is predicated on a number of supply and demand factors. The key demand factor is the slowing down of population and economic growth in the developed countries which implies a lesser rate of growth in consumption of forest products. The key supply factor is the rate of establishment of plantations of fast growing species in the tropical and sub-tropical regions which implies shift in the comparative advantage of producing industrial wood away from the northern hemisphere. The implications for Canada are significant and suggest more dynamic interpretation of where our comparative advantage in forest products lies. Key words: Global supply-demand, comparative advantage, trade patterns.