Trade and inclusive economic growth: China and Latin America (2004-2021)

Abstract

China has consolidated itself as a global economic power, and its growth has been remarkable. China’s economic influence in Latin America has significantly increased, and the country has become one of the region’s most important and relevant trade partners. Therefore, the trade relations between Latin America and China are considered “strategic.” In this context, the purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between international trade with China and inclusive economic growth in Latin America from 2004 to 2021, using data from 13 countries in the region (Uruguay, Peru, Paraguay, Panama, Mexico, El Salvador, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Chile, Brazil, Bolivia, and Argentina). Our research is quantitative in nature, with a non-experimental design and a correlational scope. The econometric model used panel data and the Newey-West estimator to account for first-order autocorrelation in the error. The results indicate a statistically significant and negative relationship between Latin American exports to China, which has a 10% impact on inclusive economic growth. Similarly, imports from China to Latin America show a statistically significant and negative relationship of 5% with inclusive economic growth. However, no discernible evidence was found to support a relationship between China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin American countries and inclusive economic growth.