Tracklet-to-orbit association under uncertainty applied to maneuvering space objects

Abstract

The association of incoming measurements to active space objects that have recently maneuvered is a recurring problem in space surveillance that needs to be addressed in space object catalogue maintenance activities. This paper addresses this measurement-to-orbit association problem through an indirect approach within an optimal control framework, assessing the likelihood of the association and providing an early description of the maneuver. A key novelty of this method is to embed the propagation problem in a Taylor differential algebra formulation, enabling a high-fidelity reconstruction of the energy metric quantifying the data association, and providing further insight on the influence of the boundary conditions (orbit and measurements) on the association metric. Simulated scenarios involving geostationary satellites are presented and discussed, and a sensibility analysis of key parameters is proposed.