Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators

Abstract

Are foreign variables important for tracking U.S. inflation expectations? This paper estimates a reduced-form model that takes both domestic and global indicators of economic slack and inflationary pressures into account. Our main findings point towards the instability of the estimated parameters over the last four decades. In particular, global indicators appear to have played a statistically significant role in shaping forecasters’ expectations until the mid-1980s. By contrast, the U.S. monetary policy stance turns out to be relevant in the 1980s and 1990s. We relate this finding to the more aggressive monetary policy conduct implemented by the Fed since the end of the Volcker experiment.