Tracking the effect of climatic and non-climatic elements on rice production in Pakistan using the ARDL approach.

Abstract

The present study aims to investigate the effect of climatic and non-climatic factors on rice production by employing an annual time series data from the period of 1970 to 2018. The study employed an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach, and the long-term equilibrium linkages between the variables have been discovered. Additionally, the study also used a regression model to determine the robustness for the authentication of results. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) methods, and the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) technique confirmed the long-run causal relationships amid the variables. The empirical results further revealed that climatic factors including annual temperature negatively affect the rice crop production, while carbon dioxide emission positively influenced via long-run. Similarly, non-climatic factors like area under rice crop, fertilizer consumption, labor force, and water availability affect the rice production positively in the long-run analysis. Finally, the pairwise Granger causality test revealed that both climatic and non-climatic variables had a substantial impact on rice yield in Pakistan. Based on the study's findings, the government and policy makers should formulate alleviation polices to tackle with harsh effects of climate change and consistent adoption of measures to secure overall agricultural production including rice crop because it is a country stable food.