Tracking the drivers of global greenhouse gas emissions with spillover effects in the post-financial crisis era

Abstract

Addressing the challenge of climate change requires information on how to achieve GHG mitigation at the global scale. Here, we use the latest data available on economic interdependencies between economies as well as the associated emission activities to track the drivers of global GHG emissions during the post-financial crisis era from 2009 to 2019, among which the role of spillover in the context of global trade is highlighted. We found that the decrease in GHG emission intensity is the main factor responsible for slowing down global GHG emissions, particularly for the industrial sector. Production technology effect plays an increasingly important role in reducing GHG emissions, yet they are still unable to offset the increasing GHG emissions caused by final demand expansion with the economy rebound after the financial crisis. The bilateral analysis across regions demonstrates that spillover plays an important role in driving global GHG emissions, and it is likely that changes in technology and economic structure could result in more GHG emissions in other economies. This motivates us to raise questions about jurisdiction-based GHG mitigation policies and a call for global cooperation to reduce GHG emissions.