Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

Lawrence C Hamilton,David W Moore,Joel Hartter,Thomas G Safford,Mary Lemcke-Stampone,Vanesa Magar

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0138208

Lawrence C Hamilton, David W Moore + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138208

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Abstract

A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010–2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state’s time series—suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

Highlights

NCERA was developed by researchers at the Carsey School of Public Policy, with sampling and interviewing done by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center
The most striking result here is the stability of public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change
That holds across different surveys (Fig 1A) and over a five-year time span (Fig 2A), not across places (Fig 1B)

Summary

Introduction

“Human activities are changing Earth’s climate,” reads the opening sentence of the American Geophysical Union’s position statement on climate change [1]. The UNH Survey Center conducted all telephone interviews for NCERA, CERA/CAFOR and the Granite State Poll, while the Carsey Institute provided logistical and administrative support. NCERA was developed by researchers at the Carsey School of Public Policy, with sampling and interviewing done by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center. The S3 Dataset attached contains the climate-change responses from all of the New Hampshire, CERA/CAFOR and other surveys described in this paper, a total of 28,962 individual interviews. Community and Environment in Rural America and Communities and Forests in Oregon (CERA 2010–2012 and CAFOR 2011, 2014, 13,111 interviews) These telephone surveys, done by the UNH Survey Center under direction of Carsey School researchers, employ sampling, interviewing and weighting methods similar to those of NCERA. All data are recorded, analyzed and presented anonymously, as specified for these protocols

Methods

Results

Discussion and Conclusions