Tracking priors and their replacement: Mental dynamics of decision making in the number-line task

Abstract

Several theories of decision making assume that optimal decisions are reached by computing a prior distribution over possible responses, and then updating it according to the evidence received. We show how this prior replacement, with its two processing stages, can be captured with a simple behavioral method: tracking the finger movement as participants point to a response location. On each trial, participants saw a number and pointed to its location on a number line. In two experiments, we manipulated either the prior, via the distribution of target numbers, or the initial finger direction, via explicit instruction. In both experiments, when a trial started the participants pointed towards the instructed direction, and in the last part of the trial they pointed towards the target. Critically, between these two stages there was a third, interim stage in which the participants pointed towards the prior before deviating towards the target. Transient pointing towards the prior was observed even when it induced a brief deviation away from the target. This pattern fits a model wherein decisions are first driven by prior knowledge, followed by the accumulation of trial-specific evidence. We propose that the number-to-position mapping task with finger tracking is a powerful paradigm to investigate fine-grained aspects of priors in a simple decision-making scenario.