Trace elements in the Upper Indus River Basin (UIRB) of Western Himalayas: Quantification, sources modeling, and impacts

Abstract

This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of trace element concentrations in the Upper Indus River Basin (UIRB), a glacier-fed region in the Western Himalayas (WH), aiming to discern their environmental and anthropogenic sources and implications. Despite limited prior data, 69 samples were collected in 2019 from diverse sources within the UIRB, including mainstream, tributaries, and groundwater, to assess trace element concentrations. Enrichment factor (EF) results and comparisons with regional and global averages suggest that rising levels of Zn, Cd, and As may pose safety concerns for drinking water quality. Advanced multivariate statistical techniques such as principal component analysis (PCA), absolute principal component scores (APCS-MLR), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), etc were applied to estimate the associated human health hazards and also identified key sources of trace elements. The 95th percentile of the MCS results indicates that the estimated total cancer risk for children is significantly greater than (>1000 times) the USEPA’s acceptable risk threshold of 1.0 × 10−6. The results classified most of the trace elements into two distinct groups: Group A (Li, Rb, Sr, U, Cs, V, Ni, TI, Sb, Mo, Ge), linked to geogenic sources, showed lower concentrations in the lower-middle river reaches, including tributaries and downstream regions. Group B (Pb, Nb, Cr, Zn, Be, Al, Th, Ga, Cu, Co), influenced by both geogenic and anthropogenic activities, exhibited higher concentrations near urban centers and midstream areas, aligning with increased municipal waste and agricultural activities. Furthermore, APCS-MLR source apportionment indicated that trace elements originated from natural geogenic processes, including rock-water interactions and mineral dissolution, as well as anthropogenic activities. These findings underscore the need for targeted measures to mitigate anthropogenic impacts and safeguard water resources for communities along the IRB and WH.