Toxicity-mediated regime shifts in a contaminated nutrient-plankton system.

Abstract

In this article, we contemplate the dynamics of a three-tier system of nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton with a gestation delay of discrete type and a distributed delay in nutrient recycling. Phytoplankton secretion-mediated alteration in the grazing pattern of zooplankton is encapsulated by a Monod-Haldane functional response. We carry out global sensitivity analysis for identifying the crucial model parameters having a significant impact on zooplankton density. The system potentially exhibits bistable configurations under identical ecological conditions by allowing different bifurcation scenarios, including multiple saddle-node and transcritical bifurcations with varying input rates of nutrients and inhibitory effects of phytoplankton against zooplankton. We observe that the gestation delay in zooplankton is responsible for the emergence of noxious bloom events. Interestingly, when the delay parameter crosses a threshold, the system experiences chaotic disorder, which prognosticates the onset of irregular bloom. Furthermore, by adding Gaussian white noise, we have extended the deterministic model to its stochastic counterpart. We found that white noise appears to regulate the survival and extinction of interacting populations. Comprehensive numerical simulations are consistent with mathematical results prognosticated by linear analysis.