Towards Zero Carbon Scenarios for the Australian Economy

Abstract

Australia’s high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per capita reflects its relatively high proportion of fossil fuels in energy consumed, high usage of less efficient private transport and high production of non-ferrous metals per capita. The dominance of coal-fired electricity generation masks Australia’s rich diversity of renewable energy resources. This analysis examines multiple pathways towards achieving deep GHG emissions reduction by 2050 towards a zero emission energy sector. The electricity and transport sectors can achieve the greatest GHG emissions reductions of 70–80% by 2050. The direct combustion sector has a harder abatement task owing to fewer directly substitutable low emission energy sources. Strong global climate ambition, supporting high carbon prices, and the successful management of high shares of variable renewable electricity (VRE) generation are important in achieving deep emission reductions. Further research and development is required to unlock the potential of additional sources of low emission energy such as hydrogen and solar thermal heat to ensure emissions can be completely eliminated without the need to purchase potentially higher cost emission credits from other domestic sectors or the international market.