Towards vehicle electrification: A mathematical prediction of battery electric vehicle ownership growth, the case of Turkey

Abstract

Many countries are relying on electric vehicles to achieve their future greenhouse gas reduction targets; thus, they are setting regulations to force car manufacturers to a complete shift into producing fully electric vehicles, which will significantly influence the adoption rates of electric vehicles. This research investigates the temporal evolution of battery electric vehicle (BEV) ownership growth in Turkey, drawing insights from both historical and current trends. By employing and optimizing the Gompertz model, we provide a year-by-year projection of BEV ownership rates, aiding in exploring the anticipated timeline for BEV market saturation. Our findings indicate that the introduction of BEVs into the Turkish motorization market is poised to push further market saturation by approximately 15 years, to occur in around 2095 as opposed to 2080s. Furthermore, our analysis underscores the rapid growth pace in BEV ownership compared to the ownership of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The main aim of this research is to provide Turkish policymakers and transport planners with solid insights into how the vehicle market will perform in the short and long run, allowing them to prepare a smooth transition from traditional vehicles to BEVs.