Abstract
Here, we provided a comprehensive analysis of long-term drought and climate extreme patterns in the agro ecological zones (AEZs) of Pakistan during 1980–2019. Drought trends were investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at various timescales (SPEI-1, SPEI-3, SPEI-6, and SPEI-12). The results showed that droughts (seasonal and annual) were more persistent and severe in the southern, southwestern, southeastern, and central parts of the region. Drought exacerbated with slopes of −0.02, −0.07, −0.08, −0.01, and −0.02 per year. Drought prevailed in all AEZs in the spring season. The majority of AEZs in Pakistan’s southern, middle, and southwestern regions had experienced substantial warming. The mean annual temperature minimum (Tmin) increased faster than the mean annual temperature maximum (Tmax) in all zones. Precipitation decreased in the southern, northern, central, and southwestern parts of the region. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed a robust increase in temperature extremes with a variance of 76% and a decrease in precipitation extremes with a variance of 91% in the region. Temperature and precipitation extremes indices had a strong Pearson correlation with drought events. Higher temperatures resulted in extreme drought (dry conditions), while higher precipitation levels resulted in wetting conditions (no drought) in different AEZs. In most AEZs, drought occurrences were more responsive to precipitation. The current findings are helpful for climate mitigation strategies and specific zonal efforts are needed to alleviate the environmental and societal impacts of drought.
Highlights
Drought is a recurrent natural hazard all over the world
This research examined the effect of climate extreme variability in drought changes in the agro ecological zones (AEZs)
Our study indicates a decreasing trend of precipitation in most of the AEZs of Pakistan
Summary
Drought is a recurrent natural hazard all over the world. Frequent changes in temperature and precipitation extremes have caused growing concerns regarding drought events worldwide resulting in economic losses in the billions of dollars. Drought events have been more serious across the world during the last 21 years [1]. In. 2000, China experienced the worst drought event, which resulted in damage to 40 million hectares of crops [2]. Drought occurrences in central and northeastern India rose dramatically by the second half of the twentieth century [3]. Climate change projection under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios indicated the significant increase in drought intensity and duration over Mexico [4]. South Asia is the most drought-influenced region in the world
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