TOWARDS THE PROBLEM OF SYNTHESIS OF DECISIONS UNDER FUZZY CONDITIONS: AGREEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL EXPERT ASSESSMENTS

Abstract

The essence of the method of expert evaluations is a logical-intuitive analysis of the internal and external environment of the management object, the development of alternatives and a quantitative assessment of their quality. The generalized opinion of experts serves as a basis for choosing an adequate decision option. The complex use of intuitive and logical thinking, as well as the formal processing of experts judgments allows to obtain indicators of the quality of alternatives in a multi-criteria decision-making task. One of the common methods of processing expert information is the method of paired comparisons by T. Saati. Each expert submits conclusions in the form of a square matrix, the elements of which are formed according to the scale of the relative importance of the alternative. The consistency of the matrix of pairwise comparisons means that the relative weight coefficients of the alternatives retain their value, regardless of how the comparison is performed. Given that pairwise comparison matrices are built on the basis of human judgment and assumptions, some degree of inconsistency between its elements is to be expected. Such inconsistency is not critical, if it does not go beyond the defined limits. The article considers the method of harmonizing individual assessments of experts in the problem of synthesis of a decision under unclear conditions.