Towards the impact of economic policy uncertainty on food security: Introducing a comprehensive heterogeneous framework for assessment

Abstract

In recent years, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has become a topic of increasing interest among policymakers in advanced economies, and food security has become an increasingly essential but contentious term since the global food price spike. Based on a heterogeneous framework, this paper empirically investigates the impact of EPU on food security by utilizing panel data of 25 countries for the period of 1995–2019. This article combines the FAO's definition of food security and improves the food security evaluation system based on the existing data, further establishing secondary indicators of food supply, food access, food utilization, and food stability. The results show that the uncertainty of economic policy has a significant negative impact on food security; the results of adjustment effect show that both the fluctuation of grain price and the dependence on foreign trade enhance the inhibition of economic policy uncertainty on food security. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the uncertainty of economic policy has a greater negative impact on the food security of developed countries and food exporting countries. To ensure the world's food security, governmental authorities must strengthen policy support for grain production, concentrate capital investment in grain production, and ensure self-sufficiency in domestic grain production. At the same time, we should also build diversified grain import channels to ensure the stability and sustainability of import sources. In the future, governments should strengthen international cooperation on food security, build a community of human food security, and promote fair and free food trade.