Towards sustainable development in the MENA region: Analysing the feasibility of a 100% renewable electricity system in 2030

Abstract

This research explores the feasibility of 100% renewable energy (RE) systems for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for assumptions of the year 2030. The demand for three sectors are taken into account: power, non-energetic industrial gas and seawater desalination. Three strategical scenarios are discussed, namely Region, Area and Integrated, mainly differing in level of regional grid interconnection and sector coupling. Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy are found to be the most cost-competitive RE sources with the highest potential in the region covering more than 90% of the generation capacity in all the considered scenarios. The variability of RE is solved via energy storage, surplus electricity generation and electricity grids. The estimated overall levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lies between 40.3 and 52.8 €/MWh, depending on the scenarios. The total LCOE decreased by 17% as a result of sector coupling compared to the interconnected power sector alone. Power-to-gas technology not only functions as a seasonal storage by storing surplus electricity produced mainly from wind power and partially from solar PV, but provides also the required gas for the non-energetic industrial gas sector. Battery storage complements solar PV as a diurnal storage to meet the electricity demand during the evening and night time. Seawater reverse osmosis desalination powered by renewables could potentially be a proper solution to overcome the water challenges in the MENA region at affordable cost of 1.4 €/m3. A comparison with a BAU strategy shows that a 100% renewable energy-based power system is 55–69% cheaper than a BAU strategy without and with greenhouse gas emission costs.