Towards Renewable energy targets for the Middle East and North African region: A decarbonization assessment of energy-water nexus

Abstract

Despite their huge fossil fuel potential, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is sensitive to weakness in oil prices and this has a negative effect on the country's finances. Also, only 1.4% of the world's freshwater resources are found in MENA, despite having two-thirds or 66% of the world's known crude oil reserves. Despite that the energy importing countries in the MENA region benefit from lower energy prices, many of the countries like Libya, Syria, and Yemen have been shaken by wars, civil unrest, and political crisis, and this has created immense challenges in the energy situation. Another major challenge facing the MENA region is water scarcity. This region can be described as a desert area. There is a growing need for sustainable water management in the region as water scarcity is becoming increasingly critical. The government in North Africa have over the years set up laudable renewable energy projects to solve the prevailing energy crisis and improve their energy security. However, due to increasing population growth and increasing demand, there is still a huge gap between the renewable energy potential and generation that can be tapped. This study explores an hourly feasibility analysis of renewable energy production for electricity and freshwater production through the desalination process using the EnergyPLAN simulation environment. This study utilizes the planned renewable energy target set by the countries considered: Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. The result shows that the increment of the renewable share to 52% in 2030 for Moroccos will cause a reduction in carbon emission by 52.09%. The emission recorded for the 2030 scenario for 52% renewable energy integration was 14.209 Mt. This represents a CO2 reduction of 78% from the 64.59 Mt emission in 2018. Also, for the projected 10% renewable electricity production target for Libya, the model shows that solar PV, wind energy, hydropower and CSP can supply a combined 6.61 TWh/year. The estimated technical result indicates that due to the extreme intermittency of renewable energy sources, the most probable scenario for meeting the future electricity demand in North Africa through a regional transmission grid is by hybrid renewable energy installations across the countries. Conclusively, it is presented that the actualization of renewable energy targets requires analysis and implementation of different policy strategies, especially for a region like North Africa, where there is a high reliance on fossil fuels for national revenue.