Abstract
Abstract. The Netherlands is subject to anthropogenically induced deep-source and shallow subsidence. Deep sources are related to the extraction of hydrocarbons or salt mining activities, whereas shallow subsidence comprise compaction, shrinkage and oxidation of clay and peat under progressive lowering groundwater levels. At TNO – Geological Survey of the Netherlands, deep-source and shallow subsidence are presently investigated separately. Forward and inverse modelling techniques are generally deployed to forecast subsidence caused by deep sources, whereas shallow subsidence is predicted using the high-resolution geological 3-D subsurface model GeoTOP. A new approach is proposed which encompasses forward and inverse modelling techniques and GeoTOP. Such combination will yield a powerful shallow subsidence forecasting model, which would be a critical step forward in analyzing shallow subsidence in the Netherlands on a regional scale. In the present contribution, we sketch the setup of this new approach that combines subsidence measurements, GeoTOP subsurface data, and data assimilation of subsidence with the help of state-of-the-art forward and inverse modelling techniques. The setup uses ensemble technology to catch uncertainties of parameters, different model choices, and implicit correlations. With such a setup, forecasts can be faithfully accompanied with a quality measure that enables to judge its relevance and confidence range.
Highlights
Anthropogenic subsidence processes in the Netherlands are divided into deep and shallow sourced, which are both in the order of up to 1 to 2 cm yr−1 (Van den Akker et al, 2008; Van Thienen-Visser and Fokker, 2017)
Shallow subsidence in the Netherlands is caused by the progressive lowering of groundwater levels, which results in compaction, shrinkage and oxidation of shallow clay and peat layers (Fokker et al, 2019)
The Netherlands is subjected to natural subsidence processes caused by tectonics and glacio-isostatic adjustments (Fokker et al, 2018)
Summary
Anthropogenic subsidence processes in the Netherlands are divided into deep and shallow sourced, which are both in the order of up to 1 to 2 cm yr−1 (Van den Akker et al, 2008; Van Thienen-Visser and Fokker, 2017). EUR 20 billion for the period until 2050 (Van den Born et al, 2016) To limit these costs, forecasting subsidence is of utmost importance for policy makers, spatial planners and stakeholders. TNO-GSN has developed forward modelling and subsidence inversion techniques to forecast deep-source related subsidence. When combining the multiple expertise of TNO-GSN, a powerful novel approach can be developed that would be a critical step forward in understanding and forecasting shallow subsidence in the Netherlands. In this contribution, a way forward modelling workflow for the shallow subsidence predictions is proposed. This integrated workflow has been lacking so far in the Netherlands and even worldwide
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