Towards modelling diffusion mechanisms for sustainable off-grid electricity planning

Abstract

The electrification-based literature reports a limited knowledge about the mechanisms of evolution of electricity demand in off-grid settings, especially in remote contexts of developing countries, due to the lack of robust and appropriate modelling frameworks. Such lack of understanding and modelling endeavour contributes to an inefficient allocation of resources for electrification projects and inappropriate off-grid sizing processes. As a first step towards the development of a more appropriate electricity demand model, we present a comparative study of two approaches for modelling different diffusion mechanisms of electricity connections: system-dynamics and agent-based models. The latter includes the modelling of social network archetypes in the simulation of diffusion processes. We model different scenarios of diffusion and we use them for evaluating the impact on the sizing process of an off-grid hydroelectric system. The results suggest that the structure of the social network can represent a crucial parameter that can impact on timing needed to complete the diffusion of electricity access – from few months to even >10 years. This affects the sizing process and the long-term sustainability of the power system, leading to variation of the hydroelectric capacity and the battery size up to around 55% and 100%, respectively. Our results indicate that the agent-based approach allows a more diversified representation of diffusion processes, but the limitations and scarcity of data can be an obstacle to their prompt application for energy application in unelectrified areas. On the contrary, system-dynamics can represent a more appropriate method since it requires less quantitative data and it provides a more structural and holistic modelling framework for conceptualising and formulating in a the determinants and complexities affecting the evolution of electricity demand in unelectrified areas.