Towards mesoscale ensemble prediction for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Abstract

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is amongst the most economically vibrant regions in China. Situated along the southern coast of China, the GBA region is susceptible to a variety of synoptic and mesoscale weather systems originating from the mid-latitudes or the tropical oceans, which are capable of bringing significant impact to the livelihood and economic activities of this densely populated area. This paper presents a first study on the development of mesoscale ensemble prediction capabilities aimed at providing probabilistic forecast support of high-impact weather over the GBA.