Abstract
More than two-thirds of electricity in Africa is generated from fossil fuels which pose a significant threat to the continent's sustainable growth trajectory. Considering technology heterogeneity, this study employs Shephard CO2 distance function to estimate dynamic carbon efficiency, carbon efficiency under Meta production frontier (MECF) and Group production frontier (GECF), and the potential contraction of CO2 emissions. We use panel data of 19 fossil electricity generation plants in Africa from 2005 to 2016. The results show that technological progress is the primary driver of dynamic CO2 emission improvement. Carbon efficiency results signal substantial improvement potentials. Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) power pools showed high dynamic carbon emission index performance but lag behind carbon efficiency compared to the North Africa power pool. Also, potential carbon emission reduction among all regional power pools varies greatly. Averagely, Africa has an annual potential to reduce carbon emissions by 51.808 Mt CO2/yr under MECF and 37.538 Mt CO2/yr relative to GECF. Targeted policy suggestions to promote sustainable power generation are provided.
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