Towards integrated flood management: Vulnerability and flood risk in the Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar

Abstract

Despite the rising global flood risk, the impacts of flooding remain systematically underestimated, leading to significant consequences for particularly vulnerable river deltas. Most studies focus either on single hazards or social vulnerability while overlooking the interconnected dynamics of deltaic social-ecological systems. In response to the first priority of the Sendai Framework, which calls for an understanding of disaster risk in all its dimensions, we apply the Global Delta Risk Index in the Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar. We combine 55 indicators of social- and ecosystem vulnerability with 100-year, 500-year, and 1,000-year scenarios of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood hazards and exposure at the sub-delta scale. Using townships as units of analysis allows for bridging the gap between global and local case studies, providing insights that are meaningful for risk-informed development of the delta as a whole system. We also examine the distinctive characteristics that define the delta systems that are particularly prone to flooding. Our results reveal patterns and drivers of flood risk and vulnerability that affect at least 65 % of the delta's population and 60 % of its ecosystem, with self-reinforcing dynamics, but also those that contribute to the mutual resilience of both systems. We argue that the principles of integrated flood management should be applied to leverage scarce resources to simultaneously reduce risk, secure livelihoods and preserve ecosystem services.