Abstract
Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of its information content (e.g., its physical and statistical modeling) and standardization of uncertainty forecast products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts and their applicability in practice. This paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: (i) end-users should start to look at the forecast’s properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; (ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. A set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices.
Highlights
Wind power has been one of the fastest growing electric generation technologies worldwide over the past decade
Atmospheric unpredictability, Uncertainty of data interpretation, Uncertainty when composing the forecast, and industry questionnaires conducted in the framework of IEA Task 36 [15] showed that: (i) there is very little knowledge of the tools and applications available to deal with uncertainty; (ii) all market players are to some extent aware of the risks associated with weather variability and uncertainty, but awareness alone is not strong enough to start including uncertainty information in operational practices [4]. In this context and considering the aforementioned barriers, the present paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of these sources of uncertainty, which are perceived as potential barriers for the integration of uncertainty forecasts into energy-related decision-making problems
Since weather is chaotic and wind is the main driver of wind power production, the two main sources of uncertainty in the prediction of wind power forecasting stems from the weather uncertainty and the uncertainty that comes from the non-linear relationship between wind and power production
Summary
Wind power has been one of the fastest growing electric generation technologies worldwide over the past decade. Wind power forecasting has been utilized to reduce and forecast the uncertainty associated with wind power output This has been in form of a single point forecast; advanced forecasting techniques can provide more information, often in form of uncertainty forecasts. Everybody has experienced the morning weather forecast claiming that “there is an 80% chance of rain this afternoon” and thereafter grabbed an umbrella on the way out of the door Due to this inherent possibility for an end-user of forecasts to take action, when forecasts lack precision, it is important to understand how wind power forecasts are currently being utilized by the electric power industry and analyze the gaps that prevent more prevalent usage of such uncertainty information in wind power applications [3,4]
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