Towards farmers' adaptation to climate change: The effect of time perspective

Abstract

Adaptation to climate change, especially in the case of water scarcity is inevitable. One of the most important approaches in this regard is perceiving farmers' time perspective (FTP). The present study was aimed to investigate the effect of FTP on adaptation behavior toward climate change (ABCC) and adaptation capacity toward climate change (ACCC) with emphasis on water scarcity. This research is a descriptive-correlational, ex post facto research and causal-relational research that was conducted using a survey. The statistical population was the farmers of Lake Urmia watershed area (N = 2855978) of whom 384 people were selected as a sample using Krejcie and Morgan table and stratified random sampling method with proportional assignment. The research instrument was a questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by a panel of experts in extension and education of agriculture and water resources and the reliability of its items was verified using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. SPSS24 and comparative statistical tests and linear regression (for path analysis) were used for data analysis. The findings indicated that the ABCC of farmers is moderate and most of them have a present-oriented perspective. Also, the results of Kruskal-Wallis test showed that there is a significant difference between farmers with different FTP in terms of adaptation behavior. The causal analysis showed that FTP can play a crucial role in explaining the level of ABCC indirectly by affecting the ACCC. Accordingly, in water resources management planning as a policy strategy, the change of farmers' perspective from past-oriented to present-oriented and especially future-oriented should be considered.