Abstract
Abstract. We developed a new strategy for disaster risk reduction for gravitational slope failure: we propose validating on a case study a simple method for real-time early warning of gravity-driven failures that considers and exploits both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation. This method capitalizes on co-detection of elastic waves emanating from micro-cracks by a network of multiple and spatially distributed sensors. Event co-detection is considered to be surrogate for large event size with more frequent co-detected events marking imminence of catastrophic failure. In this study we apply this general method to a steep active rock glacier, a natural heterogeneous material sharing all relevant properties of gravitational slope failure, and demonstrate the potential of this simple strategy for real world cases, i.e., at slope scale. This new strategy being theoretically valid for all types of failures, it constitutes a first step towards the development of a new early warning system for gravitational slope failure.
Highlights
Slope and rock instabilities due to permafrost degradation, rockfalls, landslides, snow avalanches or avalanching glacier instabilities are common in high mountain areas
Thanks to a meteorological station located close to the rock glacier and L1 differential GPS unit on the rock glacier (Wirz et al, 2013), we were able to investigate the relation between seismic activity, surface displacement and external forcing
Seismic waves captured by our geophone network system can be produced by the initiation or propagation of internal cracks, by the landslide event itself and by surface activity, i.e., small rock sliding and rolling on the steep tongue, or rearrangement of the larger blocks located at the surface of the rock glacier
Summary
Slope and rock instabilities due to permafrost degradation, rockfalls, landslides, snow avalanches or avalanching glacier instabilities are common in high mountain areas These gravity-driven rupture phenomena occurring in natural heterogeneous media are rare, but have potential to cause major disasters, especially when they are at the origin of a chain of processes involving other materials such as snow (snow avalanche), water (flood) and/or debris (mudflow) (Gill and Malamud, 2014). They potentially endanger mountain communities or real estate development and are at the origin of huge human fatalities and economic costs (Petley et al, 2005; Sidle and Ochiai, 2006; Lacasse et al, 2009; Petley, 2012). The nonlinear nature of geological material failure hampered by inherent heterogeneity, unknown initial mechanical state and complex load application (rainfall, temperature, etc.) hinders predictability
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