Abstract
We present a set of high‐resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model′s ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high‐resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high‐resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time‐slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.
Highlights
Hurricanes and tropical cyclones are arguably the most devastating meteorological events in both loss of human life as well as financial costs
We present results from another high horizontal resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that we find realistically simulates some aspects of individual tropical cyclones
We have demonstrated that the simulated tropical cyclones statistics produced by one particular model, fvCAM2.2, exhibit a Present no. of tropical storms
Summary
Hurricanes and tropical cyclones are arguably the most devastating meteorological events in both loss of human life as well as financial costs. A fifteen-year (1979–1994) AMIP-type simulation of fvCAM2.2 at 1.0◦ × 1.25◦ permits a statement about the effect of horizontal resolution on tropical cyclone statistics At this coarser resolution, the model produced a global average of only 52 tropical storms per year of which 25 were of hurricane strength. The AMIP protocol specifies realistic monthly averaged sea surface temperatures for each year of the simulation, one should not expect the modeled tropical cyclone activity to agree with observations on a yearly basis because of the other factors important to cyclogenesis that are not constrained. Other models have exhibited a stronger relationship between interannual temperature variability and tropical storm count in the North Atlantic [18, 32]
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