Towards an integrated system modeling of water scarcity with projected changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions

Abstract

Water scarcity is one of the major challenges in semi-arid and arid areas. Drivers for water scarcity include climate change, population growth, economic, and agricultural development. This paper presents a framework for assessing water scarcity under the impact of climate, industry, and socio-economic changes in the Qazvin Plain, Iran. A system dynamics model is developed and calibrated using historical data to evaluate the effects of the projected drivers on water scarcity in 2025–2054. A Bayesian averaging model was used to manage the uncertainty in the GFDL, INM, IPSL, MPI-ESM1-2, and MRI.MRI-ESM2-0 climate projections under the two future SSP126 and SSP585 (shared socioeconomic pathways) scenarios. The results demonstrate that the water scarcity index (with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1) is about 0.4 and 0.7 in SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, which may severely affect agricultural development. On the other hand, the industry, domestic, and service sectors are more resilient to these variations with no probable major effects on water scarcity. However, the stress on the agricultural sector may cause migration of the workforce to industry. Policymakers must focus on implementing appropriate adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector to prepare for unpredictable shocks to the system.