Abstract

This paper discusses an analytical approach to explaining a nearly constant high job approval rating of president Clinton between January, 1998 and February, 1999. Despite all the controversy and massive information exposure to mostly unflattering news about Mr. Clinton; the public, in nearly all major opinion polls expressed their wish that Mr. Clinton be allowed to complete his second term in the office. The analytical approach is based on the information entropy theory of Shannon. The model is tested using the data from the polling archives of ABC/Washington Post. The results are confirmed by the Kendall's τ statistics.

Highlights

  • Free societies attach great importance to public opinion, and rightly so

  • Compared to other democratic societies the public participation in policy formulation has been relatively higher from the time the U.S was a young nation

  • The middle of 20th Century saw the emergence of the new discipline in of Political Science, armed with empirical and analytical tools and mass-media based polling techniques as a direct result of rise of mass-media after the 2nd World War

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Summary

Introduction

Free societies attach great importance to public opinion, and rightly so. It's legitimacy is beyond doubt. One of the plausible explanations for this edge is the American Revolutionary War against the British monarchy, which was a rejection of that symbol of authoritarian control of the affairs of the state Both the French statesman Tourquiville (in the early 18th century) and the British philosopher Bryce (in the late 18th Century) have widely commented on the U.S public participation in policy making. The middle of 20th Century saw the emergence of the new discipline in of Political Science, armed with empirical and analytical tools and mass-media based polling techniques as a direct result of rise of mass-media after the 2nd World War. For the first time, polling techniques could be used to measure the public's views on policy issues, and ever since public opinion polls have become a major player in the states' affairs. Once the public reaches a consensus what is the process by which such a consensus is maintained?

Background
Surprise and Information Entropy
Application of Information Entropy to the Polling Data
Findings
Conclusions and Future Research
Full Text
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