Towards a Universal Framework of Nuclear Restraint

Abstract

Major changes have occurred around the world since the 1990 review conference, especially the end of the cold war and the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The United States and Russia are no longer adversaries but are cooperating in reinforcing and broadening the nonproliferation regime. The two strategic arms reduction treaties between the United States and Russia will, when finally implemented, lead to sharp reduction in the nuclear arsenals of the two countries. France has not only joined the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) but, like Canada, has become one of the strong supporters of the nonproliferation regime. China, the last holdout among the nuclear-weapon states (NWSs), has also become a member of the NPT. As a consequence, all the five NWSs are now working together to implement the treaty. Most interestingly, after protracted negotiations, South Africa has decided to subscribe to the NPT, has destroyed its six to eight nuclear weapons, and has surrendered a considerable stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be placed under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. Argentina and possibly Brazil may join the NPT before 1995. Algeria has also indicated that it would join the treaty. Thus, the membership of the NPT has been strengthened significantly and the prospects of its further extension and enlargement appear to be very good. In spite of these positive developments, questions remain about the essential basis of the treaty, its structure, and its practical implementation. It is still too early to pronounce a verdict on the ultimate success of this treaty.