Towards a sustainable energy future: Modeling Morocco’s transition to renewable power with enhanced OSeMOSYS model

Abstract

Developing countries encounter numerous challenges, such as limited access to reliable electricity and a heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels. To satisfy the rising energy demand, which is essential for economic growth, these regions are shifting towards sustainable energy solutions. Solar and wind power have emerged as key and secure energy sources. This research develops an enhanced OSeMOSYS energy system model to examine long-term energy supply strategies, using Morocco as a case study. The proposed model addresses the specific needs of decision-makers in developing countries, enabling the achievement of renewable energy targets and optimal temporal resolution. A baseline and three alternative scenarios were developed, exploring both a restructuring plan to address existing gaps and a forward-looking policy targeting nearly 100 % renewable energy. These scenarios are assessed in terms of installed capacity, generation mix, investment costs, variable and fixed costs, storage capacity utilization, and carbon emissions. The results indicate that a 92 % integration rate for renewables is feasible at an additional cost of $32 billion, thanks to new energy efficiency measures reducing demand by 15 % between 2030 and 2050 compared to baseline forecasts. Furthermore, an ambitious energy strategy by 2050 could achieve the lowest emissions rate of 0.29 Mt, paving the way for complete decarbonization. Technologically, investment in pumped-storage hydroelectric plants is the most viable backup option for a country dependent on natural gas imports. Our findings emphasize that a diversified energy mix and robust energy efficiency plans are essential for a rapid and feasible transition of the country’s energy system. This paper offers an enhanced energy model to help decision-makers in developing countries set targets on the share of renewables in total installed capacity, thereby increasing their integration rate at minimal additional cost.