Towards a stationary population in Singapore.

Abstract

The aim of the national population control programme in Singapore is to work towards a stationary population in the twenty-first century. In this paper we will describe the methodology used to simulate such a stationary population and discuss the results and implications of the simulation exercise. We can expect this stationary population to be attained by the year 2030 when the size of the population will stand at about 3.4 million. In moving towards this stationary state, the number of births will rise slightly from about 42, 000 in 1985 to 45, 000 in 2030, but the number of deaths will rise steeply from about 13, 000 to 45, 000 during the same period. The ageing process of the population is expected to continue rapidly until the stationary state in 2030 when the proportion of persons aged 60 years and over will constitute more than one-fifth of the total population. Singapore is now faced with the difficulty of achieving the demographic goal of a stationary population because fertility has remained consistently below replacement level since 1975. It is necessary to relax, or eliminate, the present strong anti-natalist policies so that fertility can have a chance of moving back up to replacement level.