Abstract
Fidel Castro, now the longest-ruling leader in the world, has drawn one key lesson from the collapse of the Soviet bloc: too-rapid change unleashes destabilising forces, even anarchy. He has become Latin America's foremost conservative, taking a step, watching to see the result, trimming his course. That course roughly parallels the Chinese-communist formula of permitting gradual economic reform while maintaining one-party rule - although Castro has been even more cautious in his economic reforms. As the Cuban revolution's founder, Castro is reluctant to undo his handiwork and is vigilant against opponents at home and abroad. His chief adversary, the United States - through four decades of hostility and isolation - has unwittingly fuelled the ageing leader's nationalist staying power. The US-Cuban conflict has deep roots, predating Castro and the Cold War, and is unlikely to end until Cubans feel that their island's independence is assured.
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