Towards a National Profile of Loneliness in Old-Age China: Prevalence and Lonely Life Expectancy.

Abstract

Loneliness presents a significant challenge for many older adults in China. Understanding the national scale and patterns of loneliness is critical to inform and guide policy interventions. This study builds a national profile of loneliness among Chinese adults aged 55 and above, illustrating the prevalence of loneliness and the average years expected to feel lonely, and examining how these measures vary by urban/rural residence and gender. I use the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2018, N=25,563) to estimate the loneliness prevalence across different gender and urban/rural residences. Drawing on Sullivan's method for calculating Healthy Life Expectancy, I estimate the Lonely Life Expectancy (LLE), which quantifies the expected years an individual will live with loneliness. Approximately 30% of older Chinese aged 55 and above reported experiencing loneliness during 2011-2018. At age 55, Chinese adults anticipate spending about seven to ten years feeling lonely, representing over one-third of their remaining lifespan. By age 75, this proportion may increase to more than half. Estimates of prevalence and LLE exhibit marked disparities with respect to gender and urban/rural residency. Rural women emerged as the most disadvantaged, facing the highest prevalence and largest proportion of remaining lifetime feeling lonely. Older adults in China spend a significant proportion of their remaining lives feeling lonely. Marked disparities in LLEs underscore the potential role of loneliness in perpetuating health inequalities across different gender and urban/rural residences. These results highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions to mitigate the consequences of prolonged loneliness.