Towards a flood vulnerability assessment of watershed using integration of decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory, analytical network process, and fuzzy theories.

Farzaneh Sajedi Hosseini,Alireza Moghaddamnia,Ali Salajegheh,Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi,Bahram Choubin

doi:10.1007/s11356-021-14534-w

Abstract

Among natural disasters, flood is increasingly recognized as a serious worldwide concern that causes the most damages in parts of agriculture, fishery, housing, and infrastructure and strongly affects economic and social activities. Universally, there is a requirement to increase our conception of flood vulnerability and to outstretch methods and tools to assess it. Spatial analysis of flood vulnerability is part of non-structural measures to prevent and reduce flood destructive effects. Hence, the current study proposes a methodology for assessing the flood vulnerability in the area of watershed in a severely flooded area of Iran (i.e., Kashkan Watershed). First interdependency analysis among criteria (including population density (PD), livestock density (LD), percentage of farmers and ranchers (PFR), distance to industrial and mining areas (DTIM), distance to tourist and cultural heritage areas (DTTCH), land use, distance to residential areas (DTRe), distance to road (DTR), and distance to stream (DTS)) was conducted using the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Hence, the cause and effect factors and their interaction levels in the whole network were investigated. Then, using the interdependency relationships among criteria, a network structure from flood vulnerability factors to determine their importance of factors was constructed, and the analytical network process (ANP) was applied. Finally, with the aim to overcome ambiguity, reduce uncertainty, and keep the data variability, an appropriate fuzzy membership function was applied to each layer by analyzing the relationship of each layer with flood vulnerability. Importance analysis indicated that land use (0.197), DTS (0.181), PD (0.180), DTRe (0.140), and DTR (0.138) were the most important variables. The flood vulnerability map produced by the integrated method of DEMATEL-ANP-fuzzy showed that about 19.2% of the region has a high to very high flood vulnerability.

Highlights

Flood is abundant water that flows rapidly and covers a large area of land, which has not been naturally submerged, and it is known as one of the most destructive disasters (Getahun and Gebre2015)
Causal relations between factors based on the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method
The results indicated that the variable of distance to road (DTR), land use, population density (PD), and distance to stream (DTS) have the highest interaction with other variables (Table 1 and Figure 4)

Summary

Introduction

Flood is abundant water that flows rapidly and covers a large area of land, which has not been naturally submerged, and it is known as one of the most destructive disasters (Getahun and Gebre2015). Flood is increasingly recognized as a serious worldwide concern that causes the most damages in parts of agriculture, fishery, housing, and infrastructure, and strongly affects economic and social activities (Demir and Kisi 2016). Surveys showed that just in 2010, more than 178 million people worldwide have been affected by floods, and from 1960 to 2017 about 34% of natural disasters have been caused by floods, resulting yearly about 1254 deaths and $ 2.5 billion in socio-economic damage (Petit-Boix et al, 2017). One of the most devastating events in the contemporary history of Iran was occurred in March 2019, that it involved 28 provinces and about 70% of the country’s area with an economic cost of about $ 3.5 billion U.S.D

Methods

Results

Conclusion