Towards a disequilibrium theory of structural dynamics: Goodwin's contribution

Abstract

In this paper, we reconstruct the complex itinerary towards the solution of a conceptual and mathematical problem, how to obtain growth and fluctuations in a framework where structural change is an endogenous, though intermittent, phenomenon and irregularity a natural dynamic property. This has been Goodwin's life-long research program, driven by the effort of marrying Poincaré's qualitative approach to dynamical systems with the earliest (and some of the later) attempts to formalise economic structure as a set of interacting economic units, i.e. the cells of the modern cellular dynamics. This eventually led him to computational dynamics. Our interpretation integrates the more conventional one that emphasises conceptual connections with the thoughts of Marx, Schumpeter and Keynes. Focussing upon modelling issues of an apparently pure technical nature permits a comparison of Goodwin's evolving views with those that have emerged more recently in dynamics, e.g. in the real business cycle and endogenous theories of growth. In a brief assessment towards the end of the paper, it is argued that while there is still much to be done along the path he chose, Goodwin left enough indications for us to know in which direction to go.