Abstract
Transportation systems are transitioning to e-mobility, but scholars and policymakers are struggling to understand how to accomplish this transition effectively. In response, we draw on the technological innovation systems perspective and the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology to develop a theory-guided and entity-based simulation model to better understand, among others, electric vehicle (EV) adoption processes as a specific yet core element driving business innovation. By doing so, our model is among the first to capture and combine the macro-and micro-level interactions associated with the EV transition process. Our simulation results shed light on the impact of alternative innovation policies, notably by explaining relations between EV market dynamics and changes in e-mobility policies, such as EV-related subsidies and resource mobilization. As such, the simulation modeling approach adopted in this paper enables a more in-depth study of transition problems related to e-mobility. Notably, the resulting modular model can be adjusted to other e-mobility transition problems by changing the specified entities.
Highlights
Transportation is crucial for economic competitiveness as well as for commercial and cultural exchanges [1]
In the remainder of this section, we describe the results of the various scenarios
We developed an entity-based system dynamics model that provides an in-depth explanation of the dynamic complexity of the e-mobility transition
Summary
Transportation is crucial for economic competitiveness as well as for commercial and cultural exchanges [1]. Current transportation systems are severely challenged by land-use restrictions, soil sealing, congestion, accidents, and the fragmentation of natural, semi-natural, and agricultural areas [2,3] While some of these challenges may be difficult, if not impossible, to tackle in the short to medium term, specific (e.g., environmental and resource scarcity) problems caused by Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) may be resolved by transitioning to more sustainable mobility solutions. A broader view of sustainable mobility includes improved mobility patterns and travel choices, fiscal incentives, institutional reforms, land-use changes, and technological innovations, for example, [8,9] Concerning the latter, several niche innovations such as Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) and intelligent transportation systems may facilitate the transition toward sustainable mobility [10]. Electric Mobility (EM) or e-mobility has a history going back to the mid-19th century and has been gaining new momentum in the last two decades [11]
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