Toward sustainable heating: Assessment of the carbon mitigation potential from residential heating in northern rural China

Abstract

Reducing carbon emissions from residential heating has become a global priority due to the urgency of mitigating climate change. In rural areas, there is a tension between the heavy reliance on traditional energy and the necessity for revitalization. Therefore, conducting a comprehensive assessment of heating energy consumption and carbon reduction potential is crucial. This study utilized a bottom-up statistical model to examine energy dynamics in northern rural China based on large-scale household surveys (n = 6150 rural households from 15 provinces) conducted between 2012 and 2017. Heating energy consumption was estimated to reach 175–275 Mtce in 2030 and 137–245 Mtce in 2050, and related carbon emissions were 466–736 million tons and 318–574 million tons, respectively. Furthermore, by implementing solid policies, including improving poorly installed building envelopes, enhancing renewable energy, promoting heat pumps adoption, and encouraging occupants' green behavior, carbon emissions can be reduced by 41.2%–76.2%. This study's findings offer governments valuable insights into strategies for reducing carbon emissions.