Toward carbon neutrality: Uncovering constraints on critical minerals in the Chinese power system

Abstract

China has set up its ambitious carbon neutrality target, which mainly relies on significant energy-related carbon emissions reduction. As the largest important contributing sector, power sector must achieve energy transition, in which critical minerals will play an essential role. However, the potential supply and demand for these minerals are uncertain. This study aims to predict the cumulative demand for critical minerals in the power sector under different scenarios via dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA), including total demands, supplies and production capacities of different minerals. Then, these critical minerals are categorized into superior and scarce resources for further analysis so that more detailed results can be obtained. Results present that the total minerals supply will not meet the total minerals demand (74260 kt) in 2060. Serious resource shortages will occur for several key minerals, such as Cr, Cu, Mn, Ag, Te, Ga, and Co. In addition, the demand for renewable energy will be nearly fifty times higher than that of fossil fuels energy, implying more diversified demands for various minerals. Finally, several policy recommendations are proposed to help improve the overall resource efficiency, such as strategic reserves, material substitutions, and circular economy.